Lebanon is situated in the Middle East. Sharing borders with Syria to the north and east and Israel to the south, while Cyprus lies west across the Mediterranean Sea. At just 10,452 km square (4,036 mi square), it is the smallest recognized sovereign state on the mainland Asian continent.
Before World War 1, Lebanon was under the Ottoman empire. After the war the empire collapsed and was taken by the French empire. In 1943 Lebanon got its independence and established a unique Confessionalism form of government, with the major religious sects apportioned specific political powers.
Now let us try to understand the political system of Lebanon briefly.
What is a confessionalism government?
In this form of government specific powers/ positions are given to representatives of specific groups. For example, Lebanon officially recognises 18 religious communities. The three main political offices - president, speaker of parliament and prime minister - are divided among the three biggest communities (Maronite Christian; Shia Muslim; and Sunni Muslim, respectively) under an agreement dating back to 1943.
Religious population of Lebanon:
The Lebanese population mostly consists of Muslims and Christians. The main two religions are Islam with 61.1% of the citizens (Sunni and Shia) and Christianity with 33.7% of the citizens.
Lebanon after independence:
As run under the confessionalism government the government of Lebanon had been under a significant influence of the elites among the Maronite Christians. The parliamentary structure favoured a leading position for its Christian population. However, this influence of the Christians was highly opposed by the Muslim population. The displacement of a hundred thousand Palestinian refugees to Lebanon during the 1948 and 1967 exoduses added fuel to the fire as it contributed to shifting the demographic balance in favour of the Muslim population. The hunger of power between the different religious groups raged a civil war which lasted between 1975-1990. Due to the tension between the religious communities Lebanon became a battleground for the proxy wars with different organizations funding different religious communities, such as Israel and Syria, became involved in the war and fought alongside different factions.
Aftermath of the civil war – 1991:
The National Assembly orders the dissolution of all militias, except for the powerful Shia group Hezbollah. The South Lebanon Army (SLA) refuses to disband. The Lebanese army defeats the PLO and takes over the southern port of Sidon.
1992 - After elections in August and September, the first since 1972, wealthy businessman Rafik Hariri becomes prime minister.
Even after all these the religious tension between the religious groups still continued.
October protests-
The 2019–2020 Lebanese protests, also known locally as the October Revolution, are a series of civil protests taking place in Lebanon, initially triggered by planned taxes on gasoline, tobacco and VoIP calls on applications such as WhatsApp calls. Quickly expanding into a country-wide condemnation of sectarian rule, stagnant economy, unemployment that reached 46% in 2018,endemic corruption in the public sector, legislation that is perceived to shield the ruling class from accountability (such as banking secretary and failures of the government to provide basic services such as electricity, water and sanitation. The protests first erupted on 17 October 2019. It continued for 301 days since they started.
Result of October revolution –
As a result of the protests, Lebanon entered a political crisis, with Prime Minister Saad Hariri tendering his resignation and echoing protesters' demands for a government of independent specialists. Other politicians targeted by the protests have remained in power. On 19 December 2019, former Minister of Education Hassan Diab was designated the next prime minister and tasked with forming a new cabinet. Diab was appointed with the support of Hezbollah, its allies, and the Free Patriotic Movement led by Gebran Bassil.
Condition of Lebanon under the new prime minister Hassan Diab:
Prior to the resignation Lebanon faced huge consequences; the national debt is around 150% of GDP, or $85 billion. Unemployment among 35s was almost 35%, poor infrastructure and during this fragile time Corona struck leaving almost half of Lebanon's citizens to sink below the poverty level this year and the government estimates 75 percent of the population will require assistance. The Lebanese economy is now one of the weakest in the world, ranking only above Venezuela, according to a list produced by The Economist. Though government ministers point to the past when confronted with Lebanon's deep crisis today, they proved unable to stop the country's economic collapse during six months in power.
The government, meanwhile, finally approved a recovery plan that it hoped would end the economic crisis and win support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a bailout package worth $10bn. But by the time the restrictions due to COVID-19 were being lifted in May the prices of food stuff had doubled which further pushed Lebanon into the risk of a major food crisis.
Beirut explosion:
Although the replacement of the old government subdued the October revolution, people of Lebanon couldn’t stay peaceful with the new government for long. The citizens kept accusing the new government of corruption yet again.
This recent event that occurred in 4th August created huge destruction in Lebanon port warehouse of what authorities said was more than 2,000 tonnes of ammonium nitrate killed at least 163 people, injured more than 6,000 and destroyed swathes of the Mediterranean capital, compounding months of political and economic meltdown. This event triggered the threshold of the citizens and once again the country saw violent protests over the weekend in which demonstrators clashed with police, took over Lebanon’s Foreign Ministry building and other government agency headquarters, and displayed banners reading “resign or hang.”
These protests ultimately led to the resignation of the entire cabinet along with the Prime minister. Although a caretaker government will Lead Lebanon which will have no rights to impose any policy over the country.
Reaction of the citizens after the protest:
Rony Lattouf, a shop owner in Beirut, told Al Jazeera that the government's resignation will not make much of a difference, the ministers of Lebanon were just a face behind them are the militia which controls everything.
This move of uprooting a government will have its own pros and cons.
On one hand, having no leadership with a political mandate will make it harder to steer a national recovery from the blast, the collapsing economy, and the worsening coronavirus outbreak. On the other, weakening a government with Hezbollah — a Shia Muslim party and militant group with close ties to Iran that the US considers a terrorist organization — as a key player may help bring in much-needed foreign assistance and quell local unrest.
We have seen in the past when governments collapse and a power vacuum is created the results aren’t good. In case of Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Libya when the government collapsed or the US troops backed up leaving the countries on their own, the militias took over the control. The creation of these power vacuum were the reasons for the rise of ISIS, Taliban in Afghanistan, the unending civil war of Libya, civil wars in Iraq. It's scary because Lebanon was one of the most prosperous countries in the Middle East and the situations are worsening in the country making the future uncertain and unfortunate for the Lebanese people. Growing food insecurity, lack of access to clean water, failure of medical health care facilities and now that they don’t have a supreme authority to govern them, Lebanon might be sliding into yet another “Humanitarian Crisis.”
UN, Amnesty International, WHO, Mercy Corps, and other international organisations need to come forward in these difficult times, the neighbouring countries and even the United States should lend a helping hand to Lebanon. UAE has sent tons of relief material to Lebanon. Iran, UNICEF are helping in all ways possible. Thousands of Syrians have rushed to Lebanon to help the people, Lebanon has been generous for years towards the refugees, it has always welcomed refugees from Syria, Iraq and other countries generously with open arms. Today Lebanon is in need and Syrians and other neighbouring countries are trying to help in all possible ways possible and with all they have. It's not the time to sit inside air conditioned rooms and discuss politics, and strategic plans. The hour demands immediate action from international authorities, and helps in all possible ways to rebuild Lebanon.
Present Scenario (As of March 2021)
Lebanon's currency fell to an all time low this week, fuelling protests across the crisis-hit nation. The country is struggling with a financial crisis that has wiped out jobs, locked people out of their bank deposits and has raised warnings of growing hunger.
The Lebanese pound plummeted this week, trading at 10,000 Lebanese pounds to the US dollar via the black market on Tuesday, before easing back slightly. It is now around 85 percent below the country's official exchange rate.
This is disastrous for a country that relies heavily on imports. Many saw the prices of essential consumer goods nearly treble since the crisis began. The official exchange rate remains 1,520 pounds to the dollar.
The World Bank estimates that 45 percent of Lebanon's population are now living under the poverty line. Meanwhile government statistics recorded a 400 per cent year-on-year rise in the average prices of food for December. The latest currency collapse means the minimum wage of L£675,000 per month is now worth just $67.50. The Lebanese state has deposited around $437 million into subsidies a month, the World Bank estimates, to keep prices in check for bread, fuel, medicine and electricity, as well as around 300 other items since mid-2020.
In a display of nationwide frustration, protesters blocked roads with burning tyres and dumpsters across Lebanon this week.
With widespread allegations of official corruption and finance mismanagement, Lebanon was economically struggling long before the August 2020 Beirut port blast which tragically killed more than 200 people.
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